Volume Spike Investor

These are this Wednesday’s top active stocks with moves on news or continued trends of yesterday.  We have offered price and volume data as well as added color where appropriate:

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is trading higher after it announced last night that it was closing down its MARTIN+OSA concept store brand.  Shares actually rose on the news. American Eagle’s profit rose this morning and the outlook is allowing shares to hold their own.  At 8:36 AM EST we have shares still up 4.6% at $17.95 on 314,000 shares.  The 52-week trading range is $8.79 to $19.86.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is managing to continue yesterday’s gains.  The stock at 8:38 AM EST is up 2.75% at $33.67 on almost 500,000 shares.  This is on the heels of yesterday’s gains to $32.77 versus the Monday close of $29.10.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is up on two bits of news.  Apollo is reportedly about to purchase Citi’s real estate unit called Property Investors, with about 65 real estate investments in 26 countries and the net asset value is said to be $3.5 billion. Its preferred 8.875% $2 billion offering was also oversubscribed.  At 8:40 AM EST we have shares up 2.9% at $3.93 and we have already seen a whopping 60 million shares trade hands with 50 minutes until the open.  Be advised, Citi traded over 1 billion shares yesterday and the stock closed at $3.82 versus a close of $3.56 on Monday.

Facet Biotech Corporation (NASDAQ: FACT) is up about 66% at $26.96 after its $27/share cash buyout has been signed with Abbott.  At 8:35 AM EST we have seen 9 million shares trade hands.  The deal is approved by both companies, and it seems unlikely that a higher bid would come in even from Biogen Idec.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) are continuing yesterday’s run higher despite the notion that some of the financial rumors were all but shot down by analysts and market pundits.  Fannie Mae is up 3.7% at $1.11 on 1.2 million shares; Freddie Mac shares are up 1.5% at $1.30 on 900,000 shares (8:42 AM EST).

GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) priced a secondary offering of 25 million shares of common stock at $4.85 per share versus a $5.15 close on Tuesday.  The sale is being made by a selling stockholder rather than the firm raising capital.  Shares are down 2.3% at $5.03, but the 8:35 AM EST trading volume is 567,000 shares.  This one trades just over 1 million shares per day and the 52-week trading range is $3.63 to $9.04.

InterMune Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) is launching after the FDA panel backed its lung drug.  This is a 52-week high as the prior 52-week range was $10.48 to $25.37.  At 8:35 AM EST we have shares up 64% at $38.17 on right at 1 million shares in the pre-market.  We saw a similar move last night after the halt was taken off.

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JON C. OGG

The bull market is officially one-year old now.  March 9, 2009 was the absolute low for the index levels.  VSInvestor.com has pulled many of biggest stock movers from the Russell 2000 Index.  Amazingly, we had to include stocks which up a whopping 800% just to get the list down to close to 40 stocks.  This shows many ten-baggers or 1,000% gains.

Some of the key stocks which showed gains in the ten-bagger category are Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATSG), American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL), ArvinMeritor Inc. (NYSE: ARM), Boise, Inc. (NYSE: BZ), Carmike Cinemas Inc. (NASDAQ: CKEC), Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC), Conseco Inc. (NYSE: CNO), Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE), Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), La-Z-Boy Inc. (NYSE: LZB), Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR), Power-One Inc. (NASDAQ: PWER), PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), Unisys Corporation (NYSE: UIS), and Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: VNDA).

And those are just some….. Check out the gains off the table below from the Russell 2,000:

There were many others which could have been included.

JON C. OGG

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trading up another 0.8% at $26.34 and challenging yesterday’s $26.36 52-week high.  At 8:26 AM EST we have seen over 900,000 shares trade hands ahead of the 11 AM announcement that will “forever change the internet.” UPDATE 9:11 up 0.7% at $26.32 on 2.4 million shares.

China Armco Metals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CNAM) is down 4% at $9.05 on 15,000 shares as of 8:30 AM EST.  This stock has been all over the place since last week and has recently seen a high of $11.10. UPDATE 9:11 AM Down 3.1% at $9.15 on 16,500 shares.

National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) was not listed in our top ten analyst calls this morning but should have been.  Deutsche Bank has downgraded the Greek bank to Hold from Buy due to its finance woes due to the Greek situation.  At 8:25 AM EST we have shares down almost 3% at $4.22 on about 450,000 shares.  Average volume is now over 3 million shares versus what was not even a half-million as recently as November.  Update 9:11 AM -2.76% at $4.23 on almost 500,000 shares.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is still rather thin in volume but shares are down about 4% at $104.45 as of 8:25 AM EST.  The stock was downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan. Update 9:11 AM -2.7% at $105.70 on 74,000 shares,

Jones Soda Co. (NASDAQ: JSDA) didn’t catch someone peeing in the drink mix but you wouldn’t know it if you saw the stock.  At 8:28 the shares are down 40% at $0.50 on only about 24,000 shares after a $0.84 close yesterday.  The 52-week range is $0.40 to $1.53.  Reed’s and Jones Soda are merging or at least have a letter of intent to merge; JSDA shareholders will receive 0.17 of a share of REED and will receive cash of $0.10 per JSDA share.  Reed’s closed at $1.58 yesterday so the merger price there would be almost $0.37.  Jones’ CEO will depart the company.  This is actually a “takeunder’ if it is even allowed.  UPDATE at 9:11 AM shares are down ‘only’ 26% at $0.62 on 31,000 shares.

DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is trading down about 1% at $6.03 on 200,000 shares as of 8:32 AM EST.  This is after yesterday’s price/volume spike up on rumors which have all but been panned by market watchers as hearsay. Update 9:12 AM -0.6% at $6.06 on 340,000 shares.

AgFeed Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FEED) is trading up 17.5% at $5.30 on 281,773 shares as of 8:35 AM EST. The company posted record revenues and said production volumes increased by 66% in the company’s hog division and 56% in the animal nutrition division.  Total 2009 revenue was a record $173.2 million, an increase of over 20% from 2008. Update 9:12 AM EST up 18% at $5.33 on 890,000 shares.

Broadwind Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWEN) is up after JPMorgan started the stock with an Overweight rating and a $6.50 target.  Shares are up 3.7% at $5.30 on about 13,000 shares as of 8:35 AM EST.

First Marblehead Corp. (NYSE: FMD) is up 6% at $2.91 on about 15,000 shares as of 8:40 AM EST.  The OTS terminated a cease and desist order for its Union Federal unit which it is still evaluating alternatives.  This stock had originally indicated higher and above $3.00 after a $2.74 close.

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JON C. OGG

DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) has seen more than its fair share of trading today.  The afternoon chatter is ‘buyout rumors’ but these sound more like BS than real meat.  Briefing.com ran the buyout rumor piece today, and we have seen Indie Research cover the rumor and then Barron’s cover it in all but an outright dismissal.  The Barron’s note is calling it chatter at best.

With 30 minutes to close, DryShips is up 7.7% at $6.10 on over 55 million shares.  We have also seen more than 70,000 MAR-2010 CALLS trade hands today, which is another 7+ million shares of trading equivalent on a fully leveraged basis.

Anything in the world of M&A is possible, particularly if you can get management or large holders to go along with it.  But there are rumors, and then there are ‘rumors of a rumor’….. This sounds more like the latter, at best.

JON C. OGG

Two and three weeks ago, SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) was the talk of Wall Street.  Since last year, the stock has risen fast than a rocket from under $0.10 to finally back over $1.00.  An analyst ‘Buy’ recommendation from Wunderlich in recent weeks with a $1.00 price target and then some added upgrades from ratings agencies helped propel the stock higher.  All this is in light of the notion that it is about to have at least some added auto competition from Internet radio and despite the notion that Howard Stern is now an event risk as his contracts is set to end.

But the realization of an astronomical valuation came back into the limelight after traders and investors realized they had gotten very far ahead of themselves.  John Malone would dwarf Karmazin and have effective control of the company if he were to convert all his debt.

And as shares slid back under the $1.00 mark, the question came up of what was the fair value of SIRIUS XM per share.  Last week we saw very elevated trading volume with one day seeing 309 million shares.  Last week we also saw shares trade briefly under $0.83, but the stock never closed under $0.89 o an adjusted basis.  And after that, we saw it almost hit the buck again at $0.99.

The stock is down 3% today at $0.91+ on over 120 million shares trade with about 45 minutes to the market close.  That isn’t double the normal volume, but is definitely close enough.

This stock may have entered into a trading range now barring any significant stock market event.  Trading as high as $1.18 in Mid-February and as low as $0.83 in early March on no real news is a wide range even for a penny stock.

Imagine if that was seen in Google or Apple.  It would be the talk of Wall Street and Main Street.  Trying to use charts and inflection points in penny stocks or in cult stocks may be more financial alchemy rather than exact science.  But the alchemist approach would look more and more like a solid trading range has been established.

JON C. OGG

Ballard Power Systems (NASDAQ: BLDP) just saw a large price and volume spike on news.

The company has announced that it has $6.2 million in project funding from the U.S. Department of Energy under contract over a four year period. Its US subsidiary, Ballard Material Products, was awarded $4.1 million as prime for a contract that will focus on improvements in fuel cell durability and cost. Ballard will be the sub-contractor to leading U.S. technology organizations for several other fuel cell research and development projects funded by the DOE.  Also noted was that over eighty percent of the announced DOE funding has been allocated to projects aimed at increased durability and cost reduction and then the remaining funds focused on water management modeling.

Shares are already off their highs after the news-pop but still up almost 10% at $2.50 after seeing a high print of $2.64.  At 3:04 PM EST we have seen over 1.3 million shares trade hands, close to triple normal volume after the 3:00 PM EST release.  Its 52-week high is $3.25.

JON C. OGG

China Armco Metals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CNAM) is still seeing elevated stock trading.  Due to a recent bump up, its average share volume is 426,000 shares.  But that was lower before the volume and prices shot through the roof last week. And today we are still very active with a 4.6% gain to $10.04. Here are last week’s big moves:
DATE  Shares Traded Close
5-Mar  7,633,600. $9.60
4-Mar  7,119,800. $8.50
3-Mar  685,200… $5.30

The 52-week trading range was moved higher as shares hit a high of $11.10 on Friday.  Today’s intraday high was $10.75.  Because this stock is sometimes included in with the ‘rare earth’ stocks and is small cap and in China, we are not even going to try bothering to note that its high has not been violated nor that it might not hold.  With a $100 million market cap, any contract can greatly influence the shares.  That is what caused last week’s run.

JON C. OGG

These are this Monday’s top day trader and active trader alerts seen in pre-market trading.  We have included the news and some brief color where applicable on each.  We have also given updates as of 9:15 to 9:18 AM EST:

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is trading up 2% after its $15.5 billion Alico sale to MetLife (MET).  The deal is similar to last week’s Asian sale in that it is divided between cash and stock.  At 8:23 AM EST we have seen 375,000 shares trade hands and the stock is up 2.4% at $28.75.  UPDATE 9:16 +4.5% at $29.35 on 1.2 million shares.

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) rose on Friday and shares are up again on Monday after the FDA approved NerPharMa to manufacture Cell Therapeutics’ drug Pixantrone.  At 8:31 AM EST shares are up 15% more at $1.03 on almost 3 million shares. UPDATE 9:16 up 15% at $1.03 on 3.95 million shares.

Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) is trading lower…. The beating will continue until morale improves.  There is trader speculation that the company should have known its recent drug failure was coming. Shares closed at $12.13 Friday and we have shared down another 3% at $11.75 on about 16,074 shares. UPDATE 9:16 down 1.5% at $11.95 on 70,000 shares.

Origin Agritech Limited (NASDAQ: SEED) is up after it announced it has developed a strategic pesticide business unit for premium branded chemical products and it expects a premium branded glyphosate product to be marketed immediately into the domestic agricultural market for the 2010 selling season.  At 8:24 AM EST we have shares up 12.1% at $11.58 on 125,000 shares in the pre-market. UPDATE 9:17 up 11.5% at $11.52 on 330,000 shares.

Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: SSTI) is trading lower after Microchip Technology Incorporated (NASDAQ: MCHP) entered into a second amendment to its February 2, 2010 definitive agreement to acquire SST and shareholders would be entitled to receive $3.05 per share in cash compared to $3.00 per share prior to the second amendment. This second amendment was in response to an offer made by another party to SST’s Strategic Committee on March 2, 2010.  SST shares are down almost 6% at $3.06 on 21,000 shares after closing at $3.25 on Friday.  There had been hopes of a higher buyout here.  SSTI UPDATE 9:18 AM -5.8% at $3.06 on 65,000 shares.

Xyratex Ltd. (NASDAQ: XRTX) is trading higher on raised guidance: $313 to $318 million in revenue versus prior guidance of $245 to $285 million; GAAP earnings of $0.77 to $0.87 EPS versus prior $0.24 to $0.52 EPS guidance.  At 8:23 AM EST we have seen a 17.4% gain to $18.00 pre-market on about 24,000 shares of stock. UPDATE 9:18 up 17% at $18.00 on 176,000 shares.

Zanett Inc. (NASDAQ: ZANE) was indicated lower this morning after Thursday and Friday’s exponential gains before the stock came way back down  This stock was up almost tenfold at one point but at 8:30 AM EST we have seen 20,000 shares trade hands and the stock is down 1.5% at $1.90.  This is not huge volume compared to the 8M shares each day last Thursday and Friday but the action will be elevated all week here.  Update 9:19 AM down over 4% at $1.85 on 28,000 shares.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Apple hit all-time highs on Friday of $219.70 on an intraday basis and the stock closed at $218.95.  What is interesting is that traders are moving back into using the options as their way to get exposure to Apple ‘on the cheap.’

The stock traded over 32 million shares on Friday, which is close to 150% of normal trading volume.  The open interest was over 125,000 call option contracts which would have been another 12.5 million shares on a fully leveraged basis.  But if you look at yesterday’s call option trading activity alone it is far more.  These are the MARCH-2010 CALL strikes with volume and open interest, as well as with the last contract price:

CALL$    Volume    OpInt    LA$T
200.00    11,090    20,017    $19.35
210.00    33,169    40,865    $10.25
220.00    63,425    32,787    $3.75
230.00    49,538    20,731    $0.86
240.00    8,386    5,284    $0.23
250.00    2,442    6,571    $0.08

These March-2010 strike prices traded right about 168,000 contracts.  That comes to 16.8 million shares on a fully leveraged basis.   When it costs about $21,900.00 or so to buy 100 shares versus $375.00 to buy the right to buy at $220.00 for another two weeks as the stock is hitting all-time highs, you can see why traders and smaller investors are choosing to get exposure to the upside with speculative options rather than by buying the stock.

And yes, these too will expire as worthless if they are not ‘in-the-money.’

JON C. OGG

These are this morning’s top day trader and active trader alerts seen in early pre-market trading.  We have offered the moves, a news summary, and brief color on each for trading references where applicable.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is up 2.1% at $215.10 after saying the iPad will be available on April 3m, 2010 in the U.S. but not for about another month in most international markets.

InterMune, Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) is soaring on positive drug data.  The company said that the FDA panel will review its lung drug, but the FDA staff has said some questioning remarks as well.  This stock has been very volatile on mixed drug data in recent months and there has been a lot of options trading around this one. At 8:47 AM EST we have seen 2.4 million shares trade hands and the stock is up 83% at $26.74 after a $14.61 close and versus a prior 52-week trading range of $10.48 to $18.14.

Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: SOLF) is trading lower after mixed results.  Its Q4 EPS was $0.25 vs. $0.24 estimates from Thomson Reuters; while revenue rose over 10% to $184 million versus $185 million expected.  Shares were down 3% at $7.30 on 131,000 shares as of 8:47 AM EST.

Conexant Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CNXT) is down sharply after it priced a public secondary offering of 14 million shares of its common stock at a price of $4.00 per share versus a $4.39 close and versus a $0.33 to $5.17 trading range of the last year.  At 8:48 AM EST we have seen 1.25 million shares and the stock is down 5.7% at $4.14.

Zanett Inc. (NASDAQ: ZANE) saw exponential gains yesterday.  The company is seeing profit taking and a reality check today.  At 8:51 AM ESt we have shares down 16% at $1.77 on about 45,000 shares.  Average volume is now listed as about 150,000 shares but that is because the figures were skewed by 8 million shares as the stock rose from $0.31 to $2.12 and hitting a high of $2.50.

RCN Corp. (NASDAQ: RCNI) is soaring.  The regional cable TV and internet provider is up 27% at $15.60 after the company agreed to be acquired by ABRY Partners for about $1.2 billion.

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is soaring again after yesterday’s gains.  Shares closed at $16.53 and shares are up 8% at $17.86 on about 1.6 million shares as of 8:53 AM EST.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG