Volume Spike Investor » MON

Merger Rumors & Chatter Drives Options (BG, MON, NWS, MWW, NUE, SCHN, CL, AMTD, ETFC)

247admin — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:21:41 +0000

Originally submitted at 2:00 PM EST…. Despite the markets trading a bit lower today there was a lot of call activity today based on takeover chatter in various sectors, as the bullish move in the markets coupled with a budding M&A market have speculators active. Early morning action was in Bunge (NYSE: BG), with Monsanto (NYSE: MON) rumored to be offering a $75 price tag, and 24,000 calls traded, a lot of new opening buyers with 50% of the action offer side, with the large players buying the out of the money January $70 calls in size.

Then a rumor that News Corp (NYSE: NWS) is looking to takeout Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) at $23.50 per share hit, and today 43,800 calls have traded, 52% offer side buys with 100+ lots of November and December $15 calls being bought, 22X average call volume.

A rumor that Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) has a $60 offer for Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ: SCHN) never really gained any traction. Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ: RVBD) was also back in the M&A chatter as 9,700 calls traded, half the action offer side, with buyers in December $22.50 calls.

The most explosive action came late in the day as Colgate (NYSE: CL) shares spiked 4% higher and IV jumped 56% as a UK newspaper mentioned that a merger with Reckitt may be close. 37,500 calls traded with 57% offer side, also seeing some sizable chunks of November $85/$90 calls and December $85/$90 calls being bought in strength.

Later in the day came wod that Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) might be looking to buy E*TRADE Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) also began to hit trading floors and call action jumped…. at least for a sub-$2.00 stock.

JOE KUNKLE, OptionsHawk.com

NOVEMBER 17, 2009

Stinky Fingers at Monsanto (MON, MOO, ADM)

247admin — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:01:42 +0000

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) may be bad enough to stink up the whole agriculture complex. The agriculture products and seed giant said that 2009 earnings are now expected to come in at the low end of its range of $4.40 to $4.50 EPS. The new expectation for 2010 earnings will be at $3.10 to $3.30 EPS versus targets by Thomson Reuters closer to $4.29 EPS. Shares were trading down by -3% in early trading, but at 8:59 AM EST we have seen over 1.7 million shares trade and the stock is down a sharp 7.5% at $77.22. Average volume is 5.8 million shares, but expect that to be hit early in the morning.

The ETF to track this is the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO), as Monsanto is 6% of its weighting. We would also look at Archer-Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM).

JON OGG

Fertilizer begins to fly as Russian miners demonstrate pricing power (POT, IPI, MON, AGU, MOS)

247admin — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:32:10 +0000

Fertilizer stocks are gaining ground, with stocks including Potash CP (NYSE: POT) trading rising 4 percent, above $94, with nearly half its average volume changing hands in the first hour of Thursday trading.

The company could be benefit from a Bloomberg.com’s report that Russia’s two largest potash miners plan to raise prices for domestic fertilizer producers by about 20%. It suggests potential pricing power for companies like Potash, which produces potash from six mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick.

Other fertilizer stocks are on the move including Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI), rising about 3 percent above $28 a share, on volume of about 550,000. Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) also are trending higher on relatively strong volume a day before a 3-day weekend. — Mike Tarsala

Premarket Alert: Farmers' spending habits hit fertilizer stocks (POT, MON, IPI, CF, AGU)

247admin — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:08:53 +0000

Agriculture stocks are seeing early premarket selling as of 9 a.m. Eastern, after Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) cut its second-quarter earnings guidance citing lower prices for phosphate fertilizers and deferrals of purchases by farmers seeking to save costs.

The company warned that its second-quarter earnings will be about 70 cents a share, down from expectations that it would post earnings in a range of $1.10 to $1.50 a share. Potash shares are down about 3% in heavy premarket trading.

One direct Potash competitor that also is seeing share weakness, although in light early trading, is Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Others on the watch list may include CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF). Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON). — Mike Tarsala

Volume Alert: Monsanto

247admin — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:51:26 +0000

Monsanto Co (NYSE: MON) shares are trading at nearly twice their average volume as of 2 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, after analysts weighed in today on the company’s third-quarter results.

As VolumeSpikeInvestor.com pointed out in a brief earnings preview ahead of yesterday’s results, the key to upside for MON shares was the outlook and margins in the seed business. See previous post.

After earnings, however, the company on its conference call sounded less bullish than they had been in the past about the long-term ability to continue raising seed prices.

As a result, the stock gapped lower at this morning’s open and threatens to close below $76 today — Mike Tarsala.

The agriculture stocks that could benefit from Monsanto results (MON, POT, IPI, AGU, MOS)

247admin — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:49:31 +0000

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) shares are up about 2% after the company beat earnings expectations by 8 cents a share, reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2009, and said it remains committed to doubling its gross profit over the next three years.

The company’s revenue was weak, but that was somewhat expected, due to its revised guidance in late May.

The report didn’t have anything negative to say about underlying demand of agricultural products, which is helping to boost shares of other agricultural stocks such as Potash Corp (NYSE: POT), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) slightly in the early going, on light to moderate premarket volumes.

The agriculture group hasn’t enjoyed positive analyst sentiment in recent months. If Monsanto happens to inspire a rally in those names, names to watch will be Intrepid Potash and Mosaic, two with a rather harsh string of negative analyst revisions. — Mike Tarsala

Volume Alert: Monsanto Earnings (MON)

247admin — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:43:00 +0000

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is a stock to watch in the premarket for a volume spike, as it’s expected to report ahead of the open. Fiscal third-quarter earnings are expected to be $1.17 a share, on revneue of $3.45 billion. The herbicides business, which accounts for about a third of the company’s profit, will be the segment to watch. In May, Monsanto cut its full-year earnings guidance noting strong generic competition for its Roundup herbicides. If there’s any upside, it could be in the company’s seeds business, where business is still expected to be strong. In addition to Roundup pricing, analysts may focus on the company’s seed price outlook.

Volume Surge: Monsanto Earnings Pulls Agriculture Stocks (MON, POT, MOS, MOO)

247admin — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:26:31 +0000

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) has just come out and reported earnings. The company beat earnings estimates but the top-line numbers and guidance aren’t going to be enough on the surface to keep everyone happy. This is dragging down the entire sector with more than one hour to the open. Monsanto’s stock is down 1.8% at $133.45 on 330,000 shares at 8:21 AM EST.

This is also pulling down Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) by 0.9% at $225.36 on 30,000 shares and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) is down by 1.25% at $141.20 on 17,800 shares at 8:22 AM EST.

This hasn’t spilled over into the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) as of yet in actual share trades pre-market, although shares are indicated down around $62.50 or so after closing at $63.25 yesterday.

All of these stocks have options.

Jon Ogg

June 25, 2008