Volume Spike Investor » POT

Potash Players Hit by Goldman (POT, MOS)

247admin — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 13:04:34 +0000

Goldman Sachs decided that potash and fertilizer is valued richly enough for now. The bulge bracket brokerage firm downgraded Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) to Neutral from Buy and downgraded Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) to Neutral from its Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs. Mosaic is down 2% at $55.62 on 35,000 shares and Potash is down 2% at $109.90 on over 63,000 shares (9:01 AM EST).

JON OGG

Postash, Mosaic, and MOO Love Goldman Sachs (POT, MOS, MOO)

247admin — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:51:29 +0000

Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) is trading higher this morning after Goldman Sachs raised the potash maker to the Conviction Buy List to take advantage of a sharp sell off in fertilizer stocks last week. Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was also raised to Buy from Neutral. Goldman Sachs’ view of a fundamental demand recovery in potash in 2010 remains unchanged and it sees that weak 2010 potash pricing is discounted into the price of the stocks. The weakness in the past week and the comments that were bullish from the same sources responsible for negative sentiment were ignored.

Mosaic shares are up 3.5% at $57.18 on 33,000 shares as of 8:48 AM EST and Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) shares are up 3% at $108.15 on 66,000 shares.

We would keep an eye on the MOO this morning. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is u only 1%, but this is the agriculture ETF and these two stocks alone account for over 15.5% of the entire weighting of that ETF.

JON OGG

Stinky Potash (POT)

247admin — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:33:07 +0000

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) posted earnings: $0.82 EPS vs. $0.81 estimates; on a 64% revenue drop to $1.1 billion. The fertilizer and potash giant is lowering guidance: Q4 EPS of $0.65 to $0.85 EPS vs. $1.18 EPS estimates. The company noted that the uncertainty among fertilizer buyers has lasted far longer than the company anticipated. It did note that these conditions cannot go indefinitely, but shares are lower as a result of guidance. Right after the open, at 9:31 AM EST we have seen 400,000 shares trade hands vs. 6.7 million on average and shares are down not even 2% at $100.60. We’d expect over 10 million shares today as the drop here is not as bad as you’d guess. -JON OGG

Potash Smells on Guidance (POT, MOS)

247admin — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:38:24 +0000

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is down after the fertilizer and potash player lowered its 2009 earnings guidance to $3.25 to $3.75 from $4.00 to $5.00 and compared to First Call consensus estimate of $4.16. The company also expects Q3 EPS to be at the low end of prior guidance. Shares are down close to 5% at $92.40 on close to 80,000 shares as of 8:36 AM EST. We would look for fallout in Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) and even in the “MOO” ETF. -JON OGG

Potash Options Rolls, Bullish Bias (POT)

247admin — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 15:11:10 +0000

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) saw not very unusual trading in the stock this Friday, but there were some options roll trades that went off that flagged this one for unusual options activity. A screen showed that almost 50,000 contracts in all traded. Here were the roll-out OCT-2009 PUT and CALL transactions.

CALL$   Volume   Op.Int.
95.00   1,223   3,284
100.00   5,985   14,361
105.00   2,127   8,357
110.00   4,885   3,585
115.00   2,405   2,487
PUT$   Volume   Op.Int.
85.00   1,042   8,851
90.00   1,429   3,371
95.00   3,678   2,187
100.00   1,332   1,460

The options bets for DEC-2009 do not look representative of ‘someone knows something’ but they were one-sided bets with the volume in the CALLS being much higher than in the PUTS. Some traders still expect a big merger in the fertilizer and potash space, although Potash Corp. has a market cap already near $30 billion. Our guess is that if Potash Corp is in a deal of some sort, it would be By Potash rather than for Potash.

JON OGG

Citi Knocks Potash (MOS, POT)

247admin — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:28:03 +0000

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) are both getting clipped on an analyst downgrade this morning. The two potash leaders were both Cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup. Volume is still light because of the specialist being in controil, but that light volume will start to surge as the open gets closer and closer. At 8:25 AM EST we have MOS down over 2% at $51.07 on only about 4,000 shares and POT shares are down about 2.5% at $87.60 on 16,000 shares. -JON OGG

PREMARKET ALERT: Mosaic Co. (MOS)

247admin — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:36:19 +0000

Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) shares are up roughly 12 percent to $50 on early premarket volume of about 20,000 shares. Speculation is rising that Vale SA (VALE) may make a $25 billion bid for Mosaic, following a report in the publication Estado. Some other agriculture and fertilizer stocks are rising in premarket trading on the news, including Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT), up more than 3 percent to $91.14 on early volume of more than 6,000 shares. — Mike Tarsala

Fertilizer begins to fly as Russian miners demonstrate pricing power (POT, IPI, MON, AGU, MOS)

247admin — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:32:10 +0000

Fertilizer stocks are gaining ground, with stocks including Potash CP (NYSE: POT) trading rising 4 percent, above $94, with nearly half its average volume changing hands in the first hour of Thursday trading.

The company could be benefit from a Bloomberg.com’s report that Russia’s two largest potash miners plan to raise prices for domestic fertilizer producers by about 20%. It suggests potential pricing power for companies like Potash, which produces potash from six mines in Saskatchewan and one in New Brunswick.

Other fertilizer stocks are on the move including Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI), rising about 3 percent above $28 a share, on volume of about 550,000. Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) also are trending higher on relatively strong volume a day before a 3-day weekend. — Mike Tarsala

Premarket Alert: Farmers' spending habits hit fertilizer stocks (POT, MON, IPI, CF, AGU)

247admin — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:08:53 +0000

Agriculture stocks are seeing early premarket selling as of 9 a.m. Eastern, after Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) cut its second-quarter earnings guidance citing lower prices for phosphate fertilizers and deferrals of purchases by farmers seeking to save costs.

The company warned that its second-quarter earnings will be about 70 cents a share, down from expectations that it would post earnings in a range of $1.10 to $1.50 a share. Potash shares are down about 3% in heavy premarket trading.

One direct Potash competitor that also is seeing share weakness, although in light early trading, is Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI). Others on the watch list may include CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF). Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU), and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON). — Mike Tarsala

The agriculture stocks that could benefit from Monsanto results (MON, POT, IPI, AGU, MOS)

247admin — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:49:31 +0000

Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) shares are up about 2% after the company beat earnings expectations by 8 cents a share, reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2009, and said it remains committed to doubling its gross profit over the next three years.

The company’s revenue was weak, but that was somewhat expected, due to its revised guidance in late May.

The report didn’t have anything negative to say about underlying demand of agricultural products, which is helping to boost shares of other agricultural stocks such as Potash Corp (NYSE: POT), Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) slightly in the early going, on light to moderate premarket volumes.

The agriculture group hasn’t enjoyed positive analyst sentiment in recent months. If Monsanto happens to inspire a rally in those names, names to watch will be Intrepid Potash and Mosaic, two with a rather harsh string of negative analyst revisions. — Mike Tarsala